Renewable Capture Price Cannibalization Forecaster
Real-time non-linear pricing suppression forecasting models and 12-hour settlement interval imbalance indices.
📊 Pricing Suppression Model & Data Sources
Scores each half-hour settlement period using a piecewise-continuous Cannibalization Imbalance Index (0–100): quadratic merit-order ramp below the 65% penetration threshold, exponential saturation above it as must-run renewables decouple from the day-ahead price signal.
- Data source: Elexon BMRS day-ahead wind/solar generation & national demand forecasts, refreshed every 20 minutes via background sync. Intraday revisions supersede day-ahead runs when available (latest publishTime wins).
- Calibration: Model coefficients are heuristic priors pending a supervised fit against realised negative-price settlement periods.
MinimalIndex 0–25
ModerateIndex 25–50
SevereIndex 50–75
ExtremeIndex 75–100
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